What the analysis shows
The reservoir fell from 315 to 310 ft in three days while the embankment kept settling. The risk is structural failure, not overtopping: the level sits 16 ft below the 326 ft danger mark. At the recent rate it reaches the 307 ft emergency-spillway target around 15 Oct.
Myanaung has 21 priority villages within 0.5 km of the stream or diversion canal, but the official table lists 10 villages relocated there. Ingapu lists 20 relocated against 13 priority villages.
Every village on the relocation list sits 37–77 m below the reservoir surface (SRTM 30 m). Of 121 villages within 2 km of the flow path, 120 lie below 51 m, the threshold used in the source exposure map.
The main north–south road crosses the stream 4.5 km below the dam on the 180 ft Ma Mya Chaung bridge, built in 1992. A second main-road crossing is at 27.9 km. Both would be cut early in a breach.
40 schools lie within 1 km of the flow path. In Ingapu that is 17 schools, the same number reported closed.
Two station hospitals are within 1 km of the flow path. Let Pan Kwin (0.5 km, 37 m) received evacuees. Nyaung Kyoe (0.8 km) sits at 16 m, lower than most villages on the list.
Flow path and villages at risk
Click a village for details. Distances are to the main stream or the diversion canal, whichever is nearer.
Reservoir and terrain
Water levels in feet, as reported. Decimal readings are truncated to whole feet.
Reservoir level, 10–13 Oct
Readings at 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00. The level fell 5 ft in 72 hours, about 1.7 ft a day. The dashed line extends that rate; it is not a forecast.
Elevation along the flow path
Ground elevation (SRTM 30 m) of the stream bed and of each listed village, by distance downstream from the dam. The blue line is the reservoir surface at 310 ft (94 m).
Daily readings
Relocation and shelter
Official situation table, 13 Oct 2026 06:00.
Relocated population by township
Shelter figures cover people staying in camps. In Ingapu 3,426 of 3,475 relocated people (99%) were in shelters. Myanaung's 1,932 people moved into 4 shelters at 18:00 on 12 Oct.
Official list against the GIS screen
Villages relocated (official) against villages near the flow path (KML list, 13 Oct).
Reported impacts
Exposure by distance and village tract
MIMU villages within 4 km of the stream and diversion canal.
Villages by distance band
The 0.5 and 1 km bands match the KML relocation list exactly: all 69 MIMU villages within 1 km are on it. The 2 km and 4 km bands follow the buffers in the source exposure map.
Village tracts with listed villages
Schools, health and crossings
MIMU school (2019), health facility (2020) and bridge layers.
Schools near the flow path
Nearest health facilities
Road crossings downstream
Distances are along the stream from the dam.
Timeline from news reports
Recent reporting, 7–13 Oct 2026. Figures differ between outlets.
Where reports disagree
Dam facts as reported
Village register
69 villages in the 13 Oct relocation KML, joined to MIMU place codes.
Methods and sources
Tables. Five situation tables (12–13 Oct 2026) were transcribed from Burmese. Decimal values are truncated to whole numbers, so 310.80 ft is shown as 310 ft. Personal, organisation and department names are left out.
Villages. The KML holds 69 villages in three tiers: within 0.5 km of the diversion canal (5), within 0.5 km of the main stream (29), and 0.5–1 km of either (35). Each was joined to the MIMU village layer by place code; all 69 matched. Distances were recomputed in UTM 46N and agree with the KML to within 0.05 km.
Buffers. Distance from every MIMU village in Ayeyarwady and Bago (West) to the stream and canal was measured to build the 0.5, 1, 2 and 4 km bands. "Downstream distance" is the position of the nearest point along the 60.5 km stream line, measured from the dam.
Elevation. Ground elevation is SRTM 30 m, sampled at village points and every kilometre along the stream. The reservoir level in metres is 310 ft × 0.3048 = 94 m; the head below the reservoir is that minus village elevation. SRTM has metre-scale vertical error under tree cover, so treat single values as indicative.
Maps. The three supplied maps (diversion canal, 2/4 km buffer with DEM classes, breach point) guided the buffer bands and the 51 m elevation threshold. They are not reproduced here.
Limits. This is a proximity and terrain screen, not a dam-break flood model. It does not estimate inundation depth or arrival time. Village populations are not in MIMU, so the people figures come only from the official tables.